amid the darkness

And some more rambings about Garth Turner

2010-12-21T23:34:00.000-08:00

Some time ago about a year ago I posted a quick blog in regards to Garth Turner which has garnered a huge response in traffic to this blog. At the time I shyed away from giving my two cents about his predictions but with the traffic to this blog I realise that many people are curious of what to think of this fellow's thoughts so I feel it is my due to weigh in. First off in full disclosure I am not a real estate guru of any fashion nor an “expert.” On that note however unlike many in that industry I have no financial stake in the words on this blog and my economic thoughts are purely a hobby and interest that I enjoy. Read the words ahead with the caution they deserve either way.

Well Garth Turner is right about many things we now all know all too well. Markets (including real estate) are fuelled by people’s emotions and hopes. Sometimes these instincts are correct and sometimes they are very wrong. Market booms are caused by inaccurate stimuli. People see prices increase rapidly for extended periods and decide to jump on the train. In the case for most of the economy in the past few years everyone involved in it has felt the pinch from not predicting the impending crash that has more than anything else changed the course of the world. The worst of all the markets was of course probably the American real estate industry. This much I can agree with.

Mr. Turner believes in the core values of economics. He himself is a classical believer in economics in that prices always correct and things are always best left to their own devices. With this belief he has used the belief that anything that continually rises must fall back to equilibrium. Unfortunately he also used this concept to build an incredibly simplistic economic model to predict the future. First off Mr. Turner assumes that nobody has free will. Constantly he claims that the market will plunged and nothing ever could stop the impending doom of the Canadian real estate bubble.

Luckily for us reality is much different. Instead Canada in the last two years has made utility of its free will extensively. Instead of sitting and watching bubbles grow and pop Canada intervened. The conservative government tightened mortgage rules to kick people out of the market and moved farther away from the risky lending practices that were seen in the United States in the past decade. The Canadian government nearly fell apart avoiding stimulus (which ending up in our democratic system reacting more effectively than probably seen in decades via constitutional safeguards) which enabled the country to shoot money into the economy and perhaps avoid the staggering unemployment that could have pushed us over the edge.

Garth’s problem with predicting the future is that when he predicts doom he assumes that people will just sit there and make no effort to stop it from occurring. Economics tells us no such thing about people’s behaviour (and ergo, markets). It is well known that in stock markets that when people hear predictions that stocks are going to plummet they will change their behaviour to prevent such a disaster. Thus the conditions change and the stock doesn’t plummet making the prediction void. In other words predictions can cancel themselves out by changing the very conditions that the predictions are based on. This is why economic predictions are so terrible. Even the best economics thinkers regularly make erroneous predictions due to the complexity of the things they are trying to make predictions about.

Perhaps Garth already knows this. He already most likely knows what I’ve written above. He probably also knows that the 1/3rd of your income spending rule is only a rule of thumb and that historically people have paid more for housing throughout the bulk of the history of mankind without economic calamity always being inevitably around the corner. Actually housing is cheap compared to the old European (and many other cultures) model of fiefdom (slavery via the means of rent).

He also perhaps knows that housing is virtually the last thing people cut from their budget (people value being homeless more than anything else) and that there are many people pay mortgages at rates much below the recent prices (housing is very inelastic compared to other markets due to the time lapses that occur with lengthy repayment periods on loans). Heck, much of the housing market is rentals thus many people are buffered by a third party.

Much of what Garth says is true... right along the same lines that we all remember learning from our first year economics textbooks but there is much more to the story.

I do believe housing prices are unaffordable in Canada and will (or at leasat should) go down. I do not think they will crash because of the many interventions that can occur in the market. I think a great many things are changing in the economy but the change while faster than what we saw in the last decade will happen more gradually.The economic struggles in Europe and the United States will and are changing the portrait of life in Canada but I’m afraid economics is more like the dull posts in this blog that the colourful ones that can be found at Turner’s. Economics is always sexy when it all goes wrong (and perhaps will help you sell a book or two) but not so much when things are going fine.

Perhaps when I have a moment I’ll elaborate my thoughts on the subject further but I’ll leave with this: The future isn’t written, and it could go either way. Just because things have gone bad doesn’t mean they will get worse (just like when prices go up it doesn’t mean they will go up forever).

Just so you know...

2010-08-08T20:41:00.001-07:00

Some may have noticed that this blog has been less than active recently.

Just so you know, I'm currently regrouping my writing abilities.

I may be moving to a new internet venue for my writing shortly.

Once I have my new plans settled I will be able to decide whether or not to keep this blog up.

Stay Tuned!

Looking good for a great cause

2010-05-21T21:42:00.001-07:00

Looking for something snazzy to do?

Why don't you check out a charity event that promises to be easy on the eyes. This show promised top notch fashion, Grammy nominated musicians and celebrity fashion workshops at a reasonable starter price (of course, you can opt for a VIP pass and bush shoulders with the big names) and its all to help provide the unfortunate with access to clean drinking water.

If your staying in town this weekend with nothing to do, this is the place to be.

Check out the website here for details:

http://www.runway4life.org/

We're here for an Earful.

2010-05-19T22:14:00.000-07:00

The hip hop summer season is upon us. I've had a few albums I've been eyeballing for awhile and going nuts over and I have to share them. Take a look:

TSOL - Shad's mysteriously titled new album drops in just a few days. I've already been going hard listening to his guest spots with Grand Analog (Electric City off the album Metropolis) and Destruments (The Calling).Shad has a great overview up of the whole album on spinner.ca, which can be found here.

12-Step Program - Panacea is a hip hop group based out of Washington DC. The group is slowly building a groundswell of support for what I can only call a extremely bold exploration of hip hop that breaks audio boundries yet takes cues from R&B and Old-Schoolism. Really, you just have to listen to them. Panacea makes albums like Pink Floyd makes albums. The cool thing about Panacea is their savvy usage of the internet to get their music out, for example, the vinyl pressing of 12 Step Program was funded completely by donation. You can check them out here.

Revolutions Per Minute - Talib Kweli and Hi Tek are back! I'll be the first to admit this is not Reflection Eternal. Hi-Tik has moved his production too far into the mainstream since the infamous album that catapulted this rapper/production duo into the upper echelon of hip hop. Talib doesn't miss a step anywhere. but the real challenge for these too will be to continue to remain relevant while keeping old fans. This is still a great album, but old fans are tough cookies to sell a new sound and these two have their work cut out. Check out the album here.

Four popular misconceptions about the Creative Class...

2010-05-12T00:16:00.000-07:00

I remember the first time I read Rise of the Creative Class by Richard Florida less than two years after it was first published and feeling that gasp of fresh air like so many others that read it. I myself was a university student at the time that would soon leave school to deal with other more important things in my life and come to realize how much that book helped explain the other issues I was perplexed by at the time. When I started to look into why young men and women from my downtown neighborhood were ending up in rough predicaments, The Death and Life of Great American Cities leapt from the pages of my local Chapters outlet and into my hands. Rise of the Creative Class helped put similar pieces of the puzzle into focus. As I later watched governments and a variety of economic development characters locally, nationally and internationally turn “creative economy” into one of the most overused and abused buzzwords in the last several years; I’ve come to hate much of what is accredited to Florida. Not because Florida got things wrong but rather because people mostly got Florida’s ideas wrong. Even worse, getting Florida’s ideas wrong is the first step on a slippery slope to missing the brilliant ideas that Jane Jacobs had.

Some readers will know that both Richard Florida and I are huge fans of Jane Jacobs. I’ve almost completed reading every major publication by the legendary writer and to say the least, she has had a massive influence on my life and ideas. The short time I spent taking school and writing seriously rather than the myriad of other life choices I could have made owe a large debt to her writings.

The fact that I left school is something Jacobs and I have in common. We both felt the need to get out of the muck of ideas that you find on the campus and back to where we come from: the trenches of everyday city life. For her it was New York City mid-century. For me it was back to downtown Kelowna during a boom period of tremendous growth and crime. Jacobs spent her early years weathering the depression while my writing continues through what Florida is now calling “The Great Reset.” For Jacobs’s ideas to be applied to the era that I find myself in feels like a gift.

Of course, in my humble opinion Florida is no Jacobs in many ways. The two are separate and the ideas are similar but both have unique differences. I could rattle off pages about my stews with Florida’s creative class concepts but I mostly think that the book covers the chosen subject better than any other piece of writing I’ve read. The unfortunate part is most of the bureaucrats that are now pushing a creative economy agenda appear to have barely read the book or are unable to comprehend the ideas inside it at all.

So here are some thoughts that can help you avoid developing misconceptions about creative economy ideas:

1) You don’t have to attract the creative class to build your economy, all socio-economic groups are still (if not more so) important.

Popular to contrary belief, the creative class is merely an indicator of change. They are the catalysts for a change that will sweep all other social classes. The creative class is a window to see where the world is going. Even if a city can attract these people, likely a new social wave building off the progress they make will appear before you can nail your feet to the ground.

Today’s creatives might like dub step, but next year it will be something else. The real secret of the creative class is that they co-opt culture from the other groups to begin with. From tattoos and ripped jeans to punk rock and techno, the creative class takes cultural cues from other classes and shoots them up the social ladder. Attracting students and new-age business types is like putting the cart before the horse. The idea of a creative economy is more a cast of mind than something you can tangibly plop into your city.

You have to create the elusive creative economy before other creatives actually start in fluxing into your area.

2) Government "creative economy" programs probably won’t have any effect.

This will be brief as I have a whole piece in the works on this subject, but it’s important so I’ll touch on it. The social changes that Florida describes in his books don’t come from the government interfering with the economy and the government likely can’t reproduce the effects in any meaningful way. Jacobs when describing here processes was adamant about this as well.

Governments can’t predict the next social movement and can’t out perform markets when it comes to consumer preference. The moment a government endorses a local LGBT community event, then the creative indicator will move to a new more extreme social group. The moment a government body subsidizes a punk rock festival, a new extreme genre of rock will emerge. Trying to figure out what creative people want is that whole needle/haystack problem.

Even worse, likely the people you’re trying to attract are the ones dictating consumer preferences. They do not want to be dictated too by default. I do have a way to help a fast moving person to pick up on what the next trend may be but that will be another post in the near future.

Staying open to new cultural trends is more important than encouraging trendy ones that are popular right now.

3) The creative class ideas don’t necessarily have anything to do with high-tech or the arts (but can).

While Florida says we should take cues from the knowledge and high-tech economies, Jacobs spent decades arguing the same ideas using meat and potatoes industries like farming and masonry. This is because both writers where talking about the exact same ideas that are true in any industry. It’s true enough that high-tech will grow faster than masonry, but the principles you’re looking at have practical applications in all the traditional industries as well as new ones.

Jacobs had no problem using her ideas arguing about the earliest civilizations while Florida tends to enjoy using them more to make sense of what is going on right now. Jacobs actually thought that the arts where merely an indicator of a healthy economy rather than a cause. Florida actually writes the same thing often (but you would never guess from what his fans say). Florida is merely advocating cities to think about competitive advantage and presenting the image of being vibrant, in hopes of attracting real vibrancy. This is a huge deviation from what his book says and anything that Jacobs mentioned. I’ll expand on this more in my next point.

Creative economy thinking can be applied to all economics and markets thus you don’t have to become the next home for Google.

4) Thinking about a creative economy often can lead into a chicken and the egg illusion.

Richard Florida likes to point out that great cities have great live music scenes. The problem is this: Do great music scenes make great cities or do great cities make great music scenes? Do LGBT communities attract economic growth or does economic growth attract LGBT communities?

We could play this game all day if we really wanted too. The truth is that none of the above “cool” sounding things equal economic growth. They may be indicators but even that is debatable. Florida is a great geographer and can throw correlations at you all day, but the crux of his argument is tricky to even critical analysis unless you read Jacobs. Chances are you haven’t read Jacobs (This isn’t fleshed out in Life and Death either by the way).

That’s not to say that if you have vibrant economic growth a LGBT community won’t emerge. Thinking about creative economies does involve an idea about economic growth, but Florida actually doesn’t talk much about that. On the other hand, Jacobs does talk all day about it.

Florida is talking mostly about competitive advantage between city regions in regards to attracting talent and capital. Florida can help you brand your city. He can’t fix why your GDP is shrinking. Now I don’t think he is all wrong, but I think it’s important to note that there is likely a phenomena occurring that acts like a feedback-loop. He is seeing the effects of economic diversity and vitality, not looking at the cause of it.

LGBT statistics are useless in determining economic growth because when Jacobs argued about diversity, she meant economic diversity. Florida has mistaken that for any garden variety diversity that he can find occurring. Perhaps cultural changes are a good rule of thumb indicator, but the real diversity one must find involves what you do to make a living. Diversity in jobs and diversity in industries is much more important. After that you must make sure that they co-mingle within your community and mix with each other.

You have to understand that in many cases in human activity the chicken and the egg neither come first nor last, they just represent different stages of development in a cycle that is progressing and adapting to environmental realities constantly. When the idea about economic diversity arises about creative economies, that means diverse industries, diverse classes and a diverse range of human capital. The creatives by themselves cannot and will not pull your economy from the gutter.

I'll be writing more extensively about the role of government as touched on in the second point later in the week. Stay tuned and feel free to leave feedback below...

Transportation is less affordable than housing... Redux

2010-05-06T01:54:00.000-07:00

I posted recently on the economic upsides of mass transit in my last post and I wanted to touch on it again with a more local perspective.

This week the City of Kelowna released updated ridership reports that show that transit use in the valley has increased, just shy of the aggressive targets set prior to major upgrades in service. Most of these upgrades are tied to political pressure from the local university to provide transit for students.

As you can see in this article also released recently, increased service has increased the percentage of the student population taking public transit from 10% to 34% in just a few years. A major factor is the mandatory UPass that was implemented.

While local university students use the transit much more heavily as a percentage of population than other segments of the general population, another factor has likely played a role. That is the economy of course. Rampant increases in wealth had in the past allowed consumers to increase automobile consumption, but with the current recession in the United States and close to home trends have shifted.

We are also likely seeing this trend in Kelowna. Residents have less money to spend on items and saving on transportation costs is a great way to buffer stagnant incomes. Transit is always a second class good to cars, but that doesn't make it less desirable. This effect is likely affecting primarily low income earners at the moment, but the percentage of that demographic could increase in the future depending on how things play out.

It will be curious to see how future efforts perform. The real test will be to see if land use policy can put enough housing close to viable transit options to strip the convenience factor of the car away from students or at least even the playing field. Even with economic difficulties, a car-centric city will attract people to cars whether they are affordable or not.

What do you think? Feel free to leave your comments or experience with transit below...

Transportation is less affordable than housing...

2010-04-06T01:00:00.000-07:00

There has been a lot of debate about affordable housing in Kelowna. Affordable housing will always be important to economic growth in the area, but transportation is often left in the dust. The first hint is in the social services; many non-profit and government employment programs offer free bus tickets and passes. Mobility is obviously a key factor in being employable.

When you have a city like Kelowna that is geared almost exclusively to the automobile, it becomes very exclusive to people who do not drive. This creates a price floor, which is when a minimum base price is in effect. In Kelowna's case, this means people must drive to start playing the employment game, which is prohibitive. Other cities with strong transit systems mitigate this problem by creating transit options that are lower in price, thus giving low-income earners an affordable transit alternative. Cities with weak transit systems limit job opportunities and cause low-income additional economic hardship.

This idea has not come to light often in the past. This is usually because driving has become increasingly affordable and available due to cheaper models of cars, government subsidization and lease-based financial products. With new economics hard times, the attention has again shifted.

For example, htaindex.cnt.org now tracks the affordability of 337 metro areas in the United States by factoring transportation costs in addition to housing costs. The costs calculated include vehicle miles traveled, walkability, transit availability and neighborhood density.

A similar and more practical tool for measuring the mobility of an area can be found on walkscore.com. This site measures the distance from your house to amenities such as movie theaters, parks, groceries, hardware stores and even coffee shops. While it doesn't factor in travelling to work, it does give a rough measure of how mobile a neighborhood is.

I also touched on the part parking plays in respect to mobility in a previous post.

The real question now is will the city be able to change its land use policy and attitude towards mobility. The discussion about this will have to be well thought out from the beginning. Few people see the sign that the implementation of a HOV lane on Hwy 97 is. The lane says that we must think about how we get around before things get out of hand. Its the first reminder that the public has had in a long time that driving is an expensive and inefficient mode of transport. The response has been less than ecstatic.

Kelowna's Scene

2010-03-22T21:18:00.000-07:00

I've slowly begun putting together a page that will attach to this blog (see above, where it say's "The Scene") to flesh out my plans on commenting more vigorously on Kelowna's not-so-much talked about alternative scene. Now by "alternative scene" I'm not referring specifically to what you might find in the entertainment section of the local media. I'm more interested in finding out what occurs behind the scenes.

If you are culturally inclined in any way and would like to be featured on the blog, please send me an email to old growthpoet@gmail.com.

I'm going to be looking for things that won't be touched by the mainstream media. This basically means that if you are shunned, despised or just can't figure out how to get some attention: I'm your guy.

Tell me what you want to know... I'll dig it up... trust me, I dig up everything.

CD21 zone is a political minefield redeux

2010-03-15T23:23:00.001-07:00

The occasional reader will know that I browse the Castanet forums on occasion. It is by far is the best source for catching leads in the valley and I find it indispensable. The first time I used it to my advantage; I was researching a vacuum sales company to gather information.

Using the usual sources of government websites and Google to research, I stumbled upon the forum to find many others were talking about the same vacuum company (I had caught wind in the local pubs, where many youth were ranting about broken contractual obligations and poor working conditions). Unfortunately, forums are completely unverifiable. So to get past anonymity, I put an ad in the classifieds section in the looking for work section asking if "Anybody had had troubles with a vacuum company" (the company name was and still is left out for libel protection).

About thirty dollars for an ad and about a thirty phone calls later (with sources who gave names, phone numbers, mailing addresses and harrowing stories) I cracked by first debacle a few years out of high school with a few bucks and ingenuity. It turns out that people who get screwed have no problem talking about it if they think it will get the word out.

That wasn’t the beginning of my inquiries although. I got that curiosity into the workings of my surroundings from growing up in downtown Kelowna. I witnessed immense growth right before my eyes right from home. This has led to following many avenues of inquiry that have led me to study: current events, sociology, philosophy, history, anthropology, psychology, journalism and most importantly economics. Growing up in a place so wealthy yet so rife with social problems (two people were murdered on the block I grew up in alone, much higher than the murder rate for the rest of the city) had me hooked on learning and writing about what I uncovered.

The CD-21 zone was no except to my inquiries; but is a tough cookie to crack with my limited resources and while maintaining a job and a life as a young man in his early twenties. Luckily for us , Tina Marten spent the last few years studying downtown growth for her masters thesis which is entitled: A Case Study of Kelowna's Neoliberal Downtown Transformation.

Marten who actually happens to be a former teacher advisor for some of my early sociology classes paints a picture comparing Naomi Klein's popular book "The Shock Doctrine" to the growth in my home neighborhood, suggesting that certain players have encouraged disinvestment in the Leon and Lawrence corridor to gain public support for the CD-21 zone.

The case study is a damaging blow for supporters of the zone, as it reveals the dirty back room politics of the city with developers, how they take seat on various policy committees (The Mayor's Entertainment Task Force is one that is mentioned) and engage in "economic terrorism" to get the results that provide the highest profits.

I should congratulate the author on giving the city an indispensable piece of research to help the "average" citizen make an informed decision about the zone without having to be "in the trenches" so to speak.

The picture that Marten paints does not dwell on solutions, but I can think of two off the top of my head.

1) First off, Marten notes that influential members (referred to as “agents of change”) strategically position themselves on various committees. I noticed this as well when researching Festivals Kelowna. Most committees that steer city policy are very difficult to become part of if you are merely a private taxpaying citizen (even if you just want to volunteer). Public participation is non-existent because it is not encouraged. This allows for backroom deals and the infestation of special interests. The obvious solution is to provide seats for the public and to limit people that have a conflict of interest (right now, you pretty much must have a conflict of interest to sit on a committee). Being a stakeholder can be a conflict of interest, and thus should be recognized as such. For an interesting discussion of this, you might want to read Jane Jacob’s Systems of Survival which covers the topic in great detail.

2) Second, a review should be conducted of how the planning department operates. Capital often needs to be directed at problem areas without corresponding development proposals. The lack of investment by the city of the Lawrence and Leon area smacks of corruption and is a disgrace of the political process. Also, all private meetings with developers should have minutes recorded and kept available to the public. The city should take back the primary role of city planning, instead of this back room partnership with developers which currently has no practical failsafe of scrutiny by the public. The public cannot give advice on what it does not know about. Again, conflict of interest is at extreme risk here. The current system is problematic to say the least according to Marten.

All in all, the thesis by Marten should be read by all who want to understand how things work in the back rooms at city hall. The thesis brings to light the real problems we have with democracy here in this city, and how that is having a negative affect on growth, development and change in general. I will be digesting this further during this week and will post my thoughts as they arise (adding an extra 170ish pages to my reading this week wasn’t planned on and takes awhile to mull).

Until next time my dear constant reader…

Garth Turner - Hated and Celebrated

2010-03-14T18:29:00.000-07:00

I went to see Garth Turner speak yesterday at the Howestreet.com money expo. Mr Turner is famous for being the conspiracy nut who claimed Canada had a housing bubble very similar to what the US has experienced since 2008. He has had a long career in politics, financial planning and as an author. I've read he blog (which is full of dire predictions for the real estate market) so I decided it would be interesting to see him live and see what the hype is all about.

The hour presentation was really a one hour summary of his blog. While I've heard he advocates buying duct tape for the inevitable post-housing crash apocalypse, you don't get any of that in his seminars. Rather, Mr. Turner gives practical investment advice for the investor and wise words. I actually give the talk high marks, I especially enjoyed hearing someone mention behavioral economics in his analysis, a topic not touched upon enough.

I always say that economic predictions are just that: predictions. No matter if its from the government, Garth Turner or your buddy from work: nobody ever gets it right. All predictions always end up somewhere in the middle in that fun area of right and wrong to various degrees. Garth is worth getting out of the house to check out, and his blog deserves a read. You'll have to decide for yourself if you think he is right or not.

So do you believe we have a housing bubble in Kelowna? Leave a comment below and tell us what you think and why...

Congrats to Habitat, but the fight continues...

2010-03-11T23:45:00.000-08:00

It was unfortunate that I couldn't make it to Tuesdays public hearing but in the end the results were good. Habitat has successfully received the endorsement of council to become a liquor primary. Unfortunately they were not able to maintain a minors endorsement. This is a good move from council, which obviously is aware that Kelowna must at least maintain the nightspots it currently has (especially one of the better in town).

Unfortunately, we're still looking at a year at least until a complete review of the downtown's entertainment policy is complete. This is probably a moot point with the recession cutting sharply into discretionary spending (can you say blockbuster night).

West Kelowna bucked the trend this week however, killing a plan to bring a racing event into the area. Apparently despite the fact that unemployment is well above the provincial and federal rate in the valley (9%, 8% and 8% respectively), apparently we don't need economic output.

Spring is here early...

2010-03-03T00:40:00.000-08:00

The last seventeen days in the province of British Columbia are a testament to the gospel of change. Floating in a sea of uncertainty amidst a recessionary period and hosting the 2010 Winter Olympics would probably give anybody a shake or two. The Olympics are fine. The economic health of the province is still at sea. Luckily for us the provincial has had a mild winter and in on the cusp of spring.

Today, the day after the Olympics; the government of British Columbia presented a new budget in the legislature. The federal government is about to follow suit as well. The provincial budget holds steady on funding and tax policy at the expense of a deficit. I have a feeling the federal budget will mirror this pattern as well. This is fine for the short term, but it is also an unsustainable direction.

Despite the fact that my hometown’s unemployment rate is hovering around 9.1 percent; nobody is talking budgets. Hockey has been the focus. Even the council vote of the CD-21 zone had to sit at the bottom of the conservational hierarchy. The country and specifically this provincial has just been stunned by hosting the Olympics and has not had a chance to take a good bearing of itself post-game. What does the future hold? Its anybodies guess. The weather has been good so I say we build on the momentum.

CD21 zone is a political minefield

2010-02-19T01:27:00.000-08:00

I have urgent points I must make about the upcoming CD21 vote that city council has ahead of them this Monday. I've been skeptical of the zone since it first came to light and now I must speak my mind.

This plan reeks of political maneuvering. At the time this plan was drafted, it focused on a few city blocks that were the center of debate in this city. The area is home to nightclubs and social services for the homeless and disenfranchised which caught the attention of the public during a very noticeable increase in street crime.

Many of these issues were addressed via other avenues in the meantime, but this plan remains as a stark reminder of the proposed gentrification to flush this problem out of the downtown core. This is apparent in light of the fact that a plan for the entertainment district and the rest of downtown still to this day does not exist. Why would we fix this area, when the future of the entire surrounding area is still an unknown? This leaves all parties with the impossible task of figuring out how this plan figures into the bigger vision of downtown.

Another important gap is the political side of this. This issue was the central issue in the last municipal election. Half of city council was replaced due to this zone (all of the new councillors were elected on the idea that this plan could probably use an edit or two). The previous council was frantic to finish this off before the election to keep it out of the hands of others. A feature of the fourth reading does not allow the current council to comment on this zone now, and if passed, they will never be allowed to comment on it in the future. Currently, all involved politicians are effectively muzzled from explaining their own actions. If this zone is passed, it will be a massive tragedy of the democratic process.

Furthermore, none of this means we have to throw this plan out for good. It did cost two million dollars to get to this point, and likely the new council members will only advocate minor changes. The present council can send this back to second reading to allow them to voice their opinion and make changes.

It is also interesting to note that Kelowna’s two former mayors urged council to pass this motion in a front page opinions piece in a local newspaper. Both mayors urged this on the argument that if they don't the momentum will be lost. They claimed that development of this area, even if passed on Monday could still take up to twenty years. So I ask: what is the pain in adding a year or two to the process? It would seem worth it, considering it would allow the democratic process to work by taking the muzzle off the mayor and council. If you take a quick look at the real estate market in Kelowna, this is obviously no rush.

The vote on Monday has a great significance for Kelowna. This vote will test our fairness and our resolve. If this plan is approved, we lose politically and we could lose our most potentially valuable neighborhood. If we vote it down, we lose a potentially beautiful centerpiece for our city.

The only winning choice we have left is to vote this back to second reading. The cost will be minor, but the potential gains will outweigh all other options by all measures.

Habitat for Humanity

2010-02-17T23:53:00.000-08:00

The Habitat is probably one of the most unconventional success stories in recent memory. Despite being situated in an area of Kelowna’s downtown that is often equated to as a slum, it has grown into a classy upscale nightspot for the youth in Kelowna. In a city that has personality issues with its desire to be a fun place; Habitat is an exception to the rule.

Last November, the owner of Habitat had to get issues with it’s liquor license cleaned up, so it went to council for an endorsement. The problem is not with Habitat, our council actually tends to go easy on this place compared to other similar enterprises; the problem is the political conundrum that we are currently in due to our civic personality disorder.

Kelowna currently has a clamp on any new liquor endorsements in the Leon area since the great clampdown that occurred around the same time council hit the brakes on Wakefest. The city has promised to review the situation, but after several years have done nothing. This is in conjunction with a new development plan for downtown that still does not exist (despite efforts to ram through the CD21 zone without knowing what they are going to do with the rest of the area).

This whole problem is due to the misconception that liquor consumption can determined at the municipal level. Some of you may be aware of the stories that emerge of massive bush parties with all the trimmings. These are merely a black market form of nightlife. Make sure that you don’t confuse liquor consumption with nightlife. They are not mutually exclusive but they are two separate things.

The fact of the matter is that the government has not figured this out. If you have a black market, the only reason is because legal alternatives cannot be found. The reason that we are seeing elaborate nightlife events in the outer areas of Kelowna is because the economic thirst is not being quenched within the city.

I first realised this when I reported on a massive party on the Westside of Okanagan Lake as a young student reporter. As I reported on summer events being cancelled by council (as well as several rental spots being torn down that were running much like a speakeasy and similar troubles at the Grateful Fed Deli) I also noticed a proportional increase in events being held beyond the reach of the law. Fresh out of first year economics classes (black markets are of immense interest to economics) the parallel was obvious.

This is where Habitat shines as an example. It quenches a market that is barely tapped in Kelowna. For every person that goes to a nightspot in contravention of the liquor act, an establishment like Habitat loses a customer. Habitat has recognized a legitimate growth industry that will exist no matter what we do; the only question is will we let commercial forces allow it to grow into a beauty or a beast. Habitat shows us that interesting nightlife can be safe, fun, responsible and entrepreneurial. It shows us that the debauchery of Wakefest can be the exception, not the rule. It proves to us that these kinds of businesses are needed and tap a niche in the local market not yet fully realised.

If the owner of Habitat and the city can hammer out a proper covenant on this piece of land, we can set an example and a create a manifest to end the personality disorder our fair city has. We can have our fun and our civility all in one place. I encourage everybody to support this.

Updated: Since I wrote this piece a few days ago I have learned that the public hearing involving the restrictive covenant and Habitat's liquor license has been postponed until March 9th, please see this article.

The High Cost of Free Parking

2010-01-26T23:49:00.000-08:00

I wanted to drop this video for everybody to see. It's a quick documentary snippet that explains the ideas behind Donald Shoup's book The High Cost of Free Parking. I'm gonna be reading this one once I find a copy in my price range as it seems like an exciting book. For now, check out this vid.

PS, more to come soon, as I'll be adding some bits about downtown Kelowna soon, just need to grab some pictures to illustrate my points, stay tuned.

2009 Book Awards

2010-01-19T00:16:00.000-08:00

I've been working on a reading list for myself to lay out what exactly I would like to put in front of myself in 2010. Not to get ahead of myself, I should note quickly the best books I read in 2009:

3) Jane Jacobs: The Nature of Economies (Vintage Canada, 2000)

If you don't know by now, I have a goal of reading all of the books published by Jane Jacobs. This was my third one towards that goal. This book is a comparative analysis of Ecology and Economics, trying to draw lines of similarity. The overarching theme is that we can learn about economics through our understanding of nature (because both are dynamic systems). Prognosis: A dry but stimulating read.

2) Joseph Heath: Filthy Lucre: Economics for people who hate Capitalism (Harper Collins, 2009)

I picked up on Joseph Heath when I read the book he co-authored with Andrew Potter called The Rebel Sell: Why the culture can't be Jammed (also a great book). Professor Heath as returned again, this time with the goal of educating the masses on the basics of economics. Despite taking classes on economics in school, this book was a great refresher for me. A great supplement to any Econ 101/102 textbook. Prognosis: You should read this book if you know what's good for you.

1) Tom Vanderbilt: Traffic: Why we drive the way we do (and what it says about us) (Vintage Canada, 2008)

I actually picked this book up after it got on a book list for 2008. I went down to my local Chapters to see if it was in stock (of course, it had many copies in stock) and was able to pick it up. That was the easy part, it's the putting it down part that I found difficult. I swear this book crammed with facts and research, all pieced together in an accessible manner. If you want a well-rounded guide to the secret world of driving and traffic, this is your pick, and trust me, it has some surprises! Prognosis: Non-fiction orgasm.

Well, that's it for now, I should get back to my 2010 reading list anyways.

Kudos to a good opinion

2010-01-18T23:35:00.000-08:00

I noticed that my old stomping grounds are back. The Okanagan's biggest little student newspaper The Phoenix is back online. I would have kept bitching on this blog until they were. It's good for them, if your feet aren't in the fire, your just not doing your job!

First off, check them out. I promise they work hard for little or no money!

http://www.thephoenixnews.com/

I'm also happy to see that they are still getting into lots of trouble. Seems they decided early in the year to allow the Pro-Life element in Kelowna to advertise a film festival (yup, I guess people make films about this stuff).

I think Heather Stack, who it appears at the time was the Phoenix's Business Manager hit the issue dead on in this opinion piece. I'm sad to see that it appears she has left her position at the phoenix recently.

I don't agree politically with the pro life crowd, but they should have a right to speak freely on campus.

The argument that says comparing abortion to genocide is hateful just doesn’t hold any water. President Bush was compared to Hitler for almost the entire part of the last decade - nobody raised a stink about that. Adbusters has been comparing corporations to German style fascism for probably even longer - no hate speech here either. In that context, I figure the prolifers have the right to use this dubious analogy too.

The real problem is the union is completely within its rights to apply its aesthetic tastes to any student group on campus. All closed-societies have these rights. The real problem is that UBC's administration has given them a monopoly on things as basic as bulletin boards, making it difficult for anybody wishing to operate independently of this group on campus to do so in a meaningful way.

William H. Whyte

2009-12-16T21:56:00.000-08:00

I've been interesting in picking up some of the books by this fellow for awhile. It's hard to resist looking into his ideas merely due to the fact that the more I dig around, the more references to his infamous work pop up.

I've read all sorts of glowing things about him, but in the end, William H. Whyte is the king of people watchers. While Jane Jacobs sat, observed and wrote her observations, he took the next step and set up cameras on rooftops, tracing the patterns that people sit and socialize in.

While I'm going to make reading a few of his books a resolution for 2010, why don't you take a look and watch his amazing documentary on plazas in New York City.

It's on youtube in six parts, which you can find here.

Tourism - should you build an a economy on it?

2009-12-13T18:57:00.000-08:00

Short answer: No.

I always took huge issue with the rosy picture that government officials painted Kelowna's tourism industry with.

I found that odd that an industry that is completely based on outside money, provides mostly low wage service and retail jobs and is geared towards a certain demographic (golf and wine? are we that narrow?) would be the thing we bank our future on.

Well it turns out I'm not from outer space... just look at this link and you'll see that from Florida to Austrailia, people seem to have the same problems with this line of thinking (just read it, you'd think they are talking about kelowna):

http://www.creativeclass.com/creative_class/2009/11/27/florida-tourism-a-double-edged-sword/

Learn More? Sure.

2009-11-18T01:50:00.001-08:00

I haven't been taken away... yet. :P

Lamenting the Baby Boomers

2009-02-06T01:00:00.000-08:00

The last fifty years have been dominated by one demographic, the infamous baby boomers. They were the hippies, and then they grew up and became the yuppies. They were not a stagnant generation. They changed the human experience more than any other generation in history. They accumulated huge amounts of wealth, more than any other generation before them. Let’s look at the legacy they have left for us.

You can’t make it 10 minutes without talk of the economy, we’re broke, even the money we have from this generation was used as down payment for much more money.

Many people note and complain that this generation’s wealth, with houses that last summer peaked in Kelowna are now defaulting on all its loans.

This generation was rich, but made the huge mistake of banking itself on things they could not afford.

It banked on destroying the concept of family. Instead of securing our future on the raising of healthy children, it gave us a lifestyle of us being forever single. We now have the institution of divorce, disposable sex and a generation of broken families.

We have a world where we deal with things via ever more advanced drugs, and less focus on being able to cope with the difficult realities of the world with our own minds. Instead it sold us everything. For every problem you have, you can purchase a solution.

Not good looking, don’t worry; there is an infinite collection of products. Not happy? They have books, self help seminars and medications for that as well. Not popular? They left us with a wonderful collection of clubs, bars and pubs and social networking options that imitate the ways of generations before.

Every aspect of the human experience has been commercialized; even religion has been sucked in and spit back out. Want to know the teachings of god? Mel Gibson has a movie you can buy. Quick, get it on sale at Wal-Mart.

Don’t forget we’ve already been so successful that we’ve over populated the planet and are soon to run out of supplies to maintain this.

Don’t worry, this generation is on the way out, it pillaged the world, and is going to leave it to us. Our generation will fix this problem right?

We’ll fix the problems of a society obsessed with debt and self-gratification. We’re not distracted by the Xbox, the iphone, the Christian whatever print hoodies, the next pimps and hoes fantasy party or with pot, ecstasy and alcohol. Society runs by itself, or does it?

In the next 5-10 years, the world will begin being handed over to the next generation, which consists of people between the age of 20-40 years now. Will this generation be ready to rein in the most successful run in history? Can we live up to the legacy? Are we ready to handle the incredible challenges that lay ahead, or will we tune out?

Lost Generation on Youtube

2009-02-01T18:50:00.000-08:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42E2fAWM6rA

Heres is a quick video to preview my upcoming post, it was sent via facebook, and I think it touches on a very important subject.

I have a new post coming soon, entitled: The Legacy of the Baby Boomers. Check out the video.

Shad K in Kelowna

2009-01-21T23:54:00.000-08:00

If you haven't heard of him yet, don't worry, he's been flying under the radar for awhile now.

Rumor has it although that he's been nominated for a Juno for his new album.

Get to know this guy, he is going to be big, and if you are wondering how to do that, why not start by checking out his upcoming show in Kelowna...

http://www.myspace.com/shad

Show is Feb 12th @ The Habitat $10 @ the door

See you there!

How about bottom-line economics for 2009?

2009-01-18T20:15:00.000-08:00

I have been most interested in an old favorite author of mine. Jacobs’ first came to my attention, as it did for most people who know of her from The Life and Death of American Great Cities. This book, published in 1961 forever changed how people looked at urban planning, and is a mainstay on many bookshelves all over the world. It forever changed how I look at things as well.

I came across Jane’s last book, right when the economy started to tank, and I am forever grateful I did so. Unfortunately I barely noticed the magnitude of this work until the end, when Jacobs’ lays out her main solution to what she believes to be the end of western civilization's golden age. This is her succinct book Dark Age Ahead (Vintage Canada, 2004).

In the second last chapter, she predicts (as many apparently did - oops) that housing policy in the United States will cause a large housing bubble burst. Of course, this book is much more helpful then other current takes on the situation because it lays out North American housing policies back to the end of World War II, and show us how we got to where we are today.

She suggests masterfully that this is the perfect time to change gears and increase densities the suburbs, enough to support mass-transit and use this to diversify them. She makes the sensible argument that when real estate no longer passively makes money from market prices, they will have to actively make money by having secondary uses (think garage offices and basement suites in overdrive). She wonderfully ties this into the inevitable retirement of the baby boomers who own most of the suburbs.

Much like the old country farmers who sold released ALR land to make way for suburban development (and profited), she suggests that we do the same with suburbia. Provide the boomers with income and increase the use of mixed use neighborhoods.

I think Jacobs’ connection to using economic hard times to change gears and improve existing systems is masterful. This is exactly the type of thinking we need right now.

When Jacobs wrote the book, our current economic troubles were nearly impossible to imagine. Here in Kelowna, wealth from Alberta and strong population growth presented us with the façade that things were working how they should. We now know this is not true. As we see governments change gears, we know must ask “we know we must change, the question is only how?"

We are now seeing Roosevelt style infrastructure projects here in Canada, with the federal and provincial governments stepping up to the plate. No new ideas, merely a re-hashing of 1930s Great Depression solutions made for the 1930s that they want to work for 2009.

This new infrastructure is badly needed for our cities, but as for dodging possible job losses, it may be akin to using a tea cup to fight a forest fire. It also does nothing to combat key economic problems. Most old-school social policy does this.

All this takes is a change in zoning strategy (something being finalized right now by the city of Kelowna). We also already know how to use micro-lending, which is working wonders in South America. Mixed use and smart density usage are the reasons European cities run so well.

It also focuses on the bottom-line of our economy. Not making more money, but spending our money wisely. Want cheaper housing, make housing produce income. Want to make housing more affordable, make living more affordable (one example Jacobs’ would note is that public transportation can cut costs in any household if it is reliable and if it makes sense).

I think I would call it bottom-line economics. Most companies are cutting costs now, wouldn’t it make sense to cut costs of households, a key economic unit. To do this we must make life affordable, instead of a system inefficiently designed for extravagance. I think the re-connection of work and home provides many opportunities in this area.

The main thought I have about Jacobs’ idea is the supply/demand part of the equation. We are looking at a total economic problem, where all sectors are having trouble. If we create these mix-use post suburban areas, what will drive demand for them beyond people cashing out of the real estate market? My basic assumption goes as follows, if you can cut the bottom-line of home owners, they can spend more in other areas, improving the economy. This train of thought can spiral from this point, as a perspective to dig us out of our economic problems.

If you really look at how central housing is to any economy, even a marginal improvement in efficiency can improve the system as a whole far more, and could swing us out of a prolonged economic mess.

bar id yes! bar iq no!

2009-01-09T00:01:00.000-08:00

Do you want to re-visit my old stomping grounds of UBC-O's infamous The Phoenix Newspaper. I as well, but the only message I got was this annoying tidbit:

Sorry, but there appears to be a problem with your installation of LiveSite: an issue or issue template could not be looked up. If manual modifications have been made to the database, please verify the integrity of the issue and template tables.

Luckily, you can still Google my name and find one article with a working link, although it's a dull piece about white poppies I did for Remembrance Day coverage a few years back.

I wonder if those busy student editors check to see if the website is up and running? I also wonder if both of my browsers (Firefox and Google chrome) could have something to do with it?

One can never tell these days...

Oh well, Kamloop's local student newspaper The Omega has a wonderful article regarding a bar id program that has been gaining popularity in BC.

Odd, with Kelowna being a much larger tourist destination and traditionally a "party city", why haven't we seen this here?

The only problem is, as the article alludes to, is can one bad night result in refusal of entry to a huge selection of establishments with no oversight for the rest of your life? You bet. Have we not thought of the implications of this? You bet. Did we forget to put in place a public body to review the end of a proverbial social life? You bet.

I have no problem with recording personal information in moderation, but if this system catches on the way I think it could, it's going to be a one strike your out for many 19 year olds' initial ventures into adult social life.

That might not be exactly the best thing in the world... when you can't learn from your mistakes anymore.

fruit pickin' and jerk chicken

2009-01-08T20:43:00.000-08:00

Thanks to a booming western economy, Kelowna graduated from importing young French-Canadians for fruit picking to a pilot project to import skilled trade workers from Jamaica.

Okanagan College (OC) touted this as a magnificent new partnership. Jamaica was so interested it sent its own bureaucrat to work with the new program.

All seemed well, and I noticed the influx of Jamaicans very quickly. This is easy when Kelowna is overrun with upwardly mobile white Canadians. Luckily, in all my observations, the quiet and often well mannered Jamaicans caused no trouble in Kelowna, despite predictions of a city run rampant with hooligans in several letters to local newspapers.

Actually, the only complaint I heard was from the owner of Lake Country Taxi, who instead complained of the cultural difficulties of Mexican exchange workers who were here to pick fruit no longer picked exclusively by young French-Canadians.

Everything seemed all kosher until just recently news broke of a nasty sex scandal between the OC employee Michael Patterson who dreamed up the whole program and a student who was a member of it.

A rather odd commentary on this was skimmed up in the conservative blogosphere here. Don't forget to take note of the ridiculous tag line for this blog "Defending liberal democracy by understanding, and defeating, the threat posed by Progressivism and Multiculturalism”.

Apparently missed is factual information about Okanagan College, which in tandem with its trades programs, it also has an excellent an excellent business program and classes in academia as well (everything from sociology to economics). Also forgotten (or omitted) was that Okanagan College has traditionally recruited for international students (mainly from the Asian Rim). This is the first program coupled with employment.

It might be good to note that British Columbia has been heavily developing it’s migrant worker programs over the last while, in which everything from the new Canada line in Vancouver to Kelowna's new W R Bennett bridge uses it.

Unfortunately, these programs have come under heavy fire from labour relations groups and social activists who see them as a way for local employers to get around labour law and regulation. They will likely get the axe if British Columbia's economic conditions worsen due to their unpopular public perception and an evaporation of the labour crunch.

Kelowna’s OCP vs.The Strip

2009-01-08T00:52:00.000-08:00

“The car-based planning of the past has made Highway 97 the worst example of highway strip. West bank is not well planned. The university (UBCO) on a hill by the airport frankly looks like a business park and you have your street issues downtown (such as homelessness, drug dealing and crime.)” Former Vancouver City Councillor Gordon Price.

When I was very young, I have a vague memory of my mom dating a man who had been in the trucking business. Tell you the truth, I barely remember him, but one thing he said to me and my mother still rings true today:

“Kelowna is like one big long truck stop”

My age handicap puts this comment somewhere in the 90s, but it is very much still true today. Many a time the off-hand descriptions of Kelowna I received in my local upbringing started with disdain for the infamous Strip. You have to live here to know about it. It’s a strip of cluttered commercial development along a provincial highway that borderline defines Kelowna. You won’t find that in a wine brochure. That’s what 50 years of car centric growth will do; yet it is just a copy of what growth is doing across North America.

In 2007, Kelowna started to revise its Official Community Plan (OCP). With a political smack-down of public criticism, growth concerns and an increasingly troubled downtown core, it was forced to do some soul searching. Well we got offered a rebuttal recently with the release of the lengthy first draft. Here are some tidbits:

“Policy 4.3.4 For redevelopment of auto-oriented commercial sites
and strip malls, require that portions of the site include
residential development in the form of creative or
innovative infill housing (such as live-work, mixed-use
buildings, student housing, rental housing) in mixed use
or stand alone buildings..

Policy 4.3.6 Along all major corridors and where a large format retail
store is part of the development, require that large
format retail store is integrated into a mixed use building
that may include residential, office, or multi-level large
format retail…

Policy 4.10.1 Direct commercial developments greater than 2,300 m2
(25,000 sq. ft.) regardless of number of units seeking
rezoning (to other than C1) not supported by the OCP
Future Land Use Map to locate on currently designated
and/or zoned commercial sites. If there are no suitable
designated or zoned commercial sites, other sites may
be considered provided that such sites are indicated in
the City’s Servicing Plan as being provided with full
urban services, including sanitary sewer within the
OCP’s time horizon. Furthermore, if the argument is
made that there are no suitable sites, the City should
require the development proponent to fund a Retail
Impact Analysis identifying the Urban Centre impacts of
allowing the requested rezoning, using Terms of
Reference developed by the City…

Policy 4.10.3 Direct large-scale commercial facilities to potential areas
within the Highway Centre and that area generally west
of Highway 97 and south of Leathead Road, on the
former Central Park Golf Course site, and in the
McCurdy Road area east of Highway 97;…”

Now exactly what does this all boil down too? Well the consultation period ended in the fall and the city will be working on the next draft until sometime in 2009. Hopefully we’ll get an explanation, a color map and a promise to stick to the plan this time. Take a look at the full PDF below.

Long live the strip.

http://www.kelowna2030.ca/spaw2/uploads/files/OCP%20Draft%20Final%20-%20Web%20Version.pdf

2008-12-27T10:43:00.000-08:00

I've been looking around and I have noticed that Kelowna lacks heavily in the blog dept. Other than a live music blog, and a few notable and consistent bloggers, it's rather quiet.

Please keep an eye here, I will have some new material very shortly...